Every year I make a set of predictions about photography. Sometimes I do better than others. Lets see how I did this year.
1. I predicted that Canon and Nikon would each introduce full frame cameras in 2011. That one came partially came true already thanks to Canon – and I believe Nikon will follow through before the end of this year as well.
2. I predicted Micro 4/3 will make standard 4/3 cameras irrelevant and I while this one is certainly a matter of opinion, I think its more true than not.
3. I predicted Sony would continue to spend millions marketing to the photography market only to have their terribly inept PR department ruin any possible good will or interest the ads generate. I was right again – although I do know a few people who use their cameras and like them. I will never be on that list.
4. I predicted that Electronic Viewfinders would dramatically improve in 2011, they would become more affordable and their availability would improve too. I was right on all counts. The new EVF used by Olympus is a brilliant example of where this technology is going.
5. I predicted Medium format would make a come back of sorts in 2011 with more choices and lower prices. I failed here – but I think the economy, the tragedy in Japan and the politics of trade played big parts in this one not coming true.
6. I predicted that more and more cameras would offer serious in-camera HDR options and in 2011 they would actually matter. I was half right. Cameras such as the newly-announced Canon 1DX offer in-camera HDR but it doesn’t look like it will matter all that much.
7. I predicted that photographers would see more electronic publishing and licensing opportunities as the explosion of blogs, mobile sites, downloadable A/V, electronic readers and tablets continue to push old-fashioned print out of existence. This has certainly come true.
8. I predicted Adobe would shorten its Photoshop revision timeline to once a year in 2011 going away from the update every 18 months. While it hasn’t come true yet, Adobe made announcements this year that indicate its coming true next year.
9. I predicted that the folks who predict Apple will stop supporting or selling Aperture in 2011 would be wrong just as they were in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010 – and of course, they were not only wrong but spectacularly so. Aperture had several updates in 2011.
10. I predicted HDR would gain acceptance to the point where camera club forums pick something completely new and even more silly to argue about. I was partly right. HDR has certainly gained wider acceptance but the camera club forums are dominated by folks who love to hate so acceptance or not – theyre still hating on HDR while the people who look at photographs still seem to love it.
11. I predicted that despite a world-wide economic downturn, the photography industry will have an up year. I was incredibly off the mark here, but when I made that prediction I had no way to know that a major earthquake, flood and tsunami would hit Japan this year. Hopefully they will come back next year but some of the Japanese camera companies could be in real trouble.
All-in-all I think I did a pretty darn good job. I am working on my predictions for 2012 and will post them next month.
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